Home Forums Movies Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 23)

I get that you’re stumping for your faves–that’s what all of us are doing to some extent–but stop acting like you’re being objective. GDT is not getting in for Best Director, and Cooper is only barely more likely to get nominated for Best Actor. You’re wishcasting.

I’m not stumping for my faves (GDT has never even made my personal ballot for any of his films, Cooper is not one of my favorites either) and I’ve consistently been one of the best Oscar predictors. If I think their chances change then I will modify my predictions. You’ve provided no reasoning, I’m not sure why you think your comment is doing anything worthwhile.

I’m not stumping for my faves (GDT has never even made my personal ballot for any of his films, Cooper is not one of my favorites either) and I’ve consistently been one of the best Oscar predictors. If I think their chances change then I will modify my predictions. You’ve provided no reasoning, I’m not sure why you think your comment is doing anything worthwhile.

Well, I stand corrected if that’s not what you’re doing. But considering how every other post is you aggressively advocating for Nightmare Alley and/or trashing Macbeth, you’ll forgive me for thinking you have a bone to pick.

A lot of people around here have been trashing Nightmare Alley, while acting like Tragedy of Macbeth is the next Phantom Thread, and that goes against what I am actually seeing out there. And yes I do prefer the former film personally in this case, but it’s not just a personal thing, there is definite love out there for what GDT did, and factually there are Academy members saying this is Bradley Cooper’s best performance.

What I find especially annoying is many predictors have just taken the BFCA nominees for Best Actor and decided that will be the Oscar lineup. That’s very weak predicting. Even with a field of 7 in 2019 they failed to list Jonathan Pryce, who I always knew would be in. And people were SO surprised that year when the Oscar lineup had both Pryce and Banderas, but since December of that season, I always “knew” it would be the lineup. Ironically, they also didn’t list Denzel among their 7 in 2017, when I strongly felt that performance would resonate with voters, and was predicting him even when his movie didn’t do well. This year Denzel has the early pundit favor, but I don’t see the performance making big waves. And Dinklage, LOL…just no. That film has super low viewership, the Cyrano character has already been done to death, and the performance doesn’t stand out as a super special rendition.

We’ll see the reception it gets when it releases on Friday but I still maintain that The Lost Daughter has potential to surprise as a late-breaker. It seems like a likely bet for actress and adapted screenplay nominations at this point which is much more than some of these contenders that are being tipped for nominations in Best Picture but also its themes of motherhood seems to have struck a chord with every awards group who has seen the film (see its Gotham sweep for example). And we’ve seen how much female voters in the academy can give an additional push to a film (Promising Young Woman‘s nominations haul last year, Little Women, even Lady Bird to an extent).

"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

Leo is probably getting in. It’s not his best performance, but the breakdown scene is a price of admission for voters.

We’ll see the reception it gets when it releases on Friday but I still maintain that <i>The Lost Daughter </i>has potential to surprise as a late-breaker. It seems like a likely bet for actress and adapted screenplay nominations at this point which is much more than some of these contenders that are being tipped for nominations in this category but also its themes of motherhood seems to have struck a chord with every awards group who has seen the film (see its Gotham sweep for example). And we’ve seen how much female voters in the academy can give an additional push to a film (Promising Young Woman‘s nominations haul last year, Little Women, even Lady Bird to an extent).

When you say it opens on Friday do you mean on streaming? I saw the movie 3 weeks ago in a movie theater and I don’t live in NYC or L.A.

I love it so much, it’s my #4 movie of the year, and Olivia is my #1 for Best Actress! Here’s hoping once people see her phenomenal performance people will understand why I choose her as the best performance of the year.

I currently have TLD in my BP predictions on the strength of Maggie Gyllenhaal’s incredible debut as a director, the fine ensemble work, and the way the editing, camera work, use of music, and menacing atmosphere all work wonders. I would love it if Gyllenhaal were to make it into the Best Director lineup.

Having seen both Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth I would hope the latter would be nominated and not the former. TTOM is an amazing visual achievement and while it is not perfect it is very close to being perfect overall as a movie. NA was a major disappointment for me, dull and I did not like Bradley Cooper’s performance at all. I might wind up wrong but I really do believe TTOM is going to do much better with the academy than NA, which I think at this point will only get a Production Design nomination.

I actually think it’s the opposite. You are letting your personal feelings affect your predictions. Remember we need to be realistic as best as possible.

On February 8th we will know who is right about this. I happen to believe I am the one who is being realistic. This film has tremendous passion on its side – everybody is watching it and that will help enormously. The people who love it really love it. I do really well with the top 8 categories and do much less well with the categories where I don’t get to see enough of the movies (doc, animated, shorts, vfx type movies).

Gold Derby’s current predicted 10 (in order)

The Power of the Dog,  Belfast,  West Side Story,  Licorice Pizza,  Dune,  King Richard,  CODA,  Don’t Look Up,  Nightmare Alley,  tick, tick…BOOM!

Out of those 10, only 4 have female leads. Alana Haim, Rachel Zegler, and Jennifer Lawrence all have male co-leads.

Only one, CODA, has a is true, singular, female lead, and Emilia Jones is a long-shot at best for a nomination.

It wouldn’t match recent academy voting trends for the picture lineup to remain so… chauvinistic.

There’s almost always at least one “true” lead actress — without a male co-lead — whose picture gets in along with her. Unless this year is like when Amy Adams missed for Arrival, I suspect one or more of the following films will be nominated in both Picture and Actress:

Parallel Mothers/Penelope Cruz,  The Lost Daughter/Olivia Colman,  The Worst Person in the World/Renate Reinsve,  Spencer/Kristen Stewart

The Lost Daughter is already likely to get Acting and Adapted Screenplay nominations, which is a very good recipe for making Picture these days, as long as your movie isn’t about a couple of popes.

I don’t know but I have gut feeling that WSS is gonna win. I mean, it’s a type of film that the industry and cinema lovers love in which it will benefit for passion votes. It has an old-fashioned love story told in a modern manner, a diverse cast and released theatrically. It will be a huge at guilds also.

I don’t know but I have gut feeling that WSS is gonna win. I mean, it’s a type of film that the industry and cinema lovers love in which it will benefit for passion votes. It has an old-fashioned love story told in a modern manner, a diverse cast and released theatrically. It will be a huge at guilds also.

Not with only $2.8M at the Christmas weekend box office, it won’t.

Idk I just don’t understand the narrative of WSS winning BP when the original is already the second biggest Oscar sweeper of all-time

Plus the fact that it’s pretty much bombing despite Spielberg usually being a hitmaker

Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz

Best Actor - Denzel Washington

Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis

Not with only $2.8M at the Christmas weekend box office, it won’t.

Do box office matter nowadays? Most of the possible nominees are technically BO bombs anyway. It will probably benefit from streaming and long awards theater run.

I’m not stumping for my faves (GDT has never even made my personal ballot for any of his films, Cooper is not one of my favorites either) and I’ve consistently been one of the best Oscar predictors. If I think their chances change then I will modify my predictions. You’ve provided no reasoning, I’m not sure why you think your comment is doing anything worthwhile.

Zuranthium wrote: I’m not stumping for my faves (GDT has never even made my personal ballot for any of his films, Cooper is not one of my favorites either) and I’ve consistently been one of the best Oscar predictors. If I think their chances change then I will modify my predictions. You’ve provided no reasoning, I’m not sure why you think your comment is doing anything worthwhile.

The place is full of people who’ve “consistently been one of the best Oscar predictors” – doesn’t excuse arrogance.

FYC Best Picture: Jockey Director: Clint Bentley Actor: Clifton Collins Jr. Supporting Actress: Molly Parker Supporting Actor: Moises Arias Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso Film Editing: Parker Laramie Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

Idk I just don’t understand the narrative of WSS winning BP when the original is already the second biggest Oscar sweeper of all-time

Plus the fact that it’s pretty much bombing despite Spielberg usually being a hitmaker

The reason it can win is because it’s an amazing movie. It is the best movie of 2021. I don’t know why people didn’t go and see it in the movie theater – it seems you either have to have Lady Gaga, be a hyper violent superhero movie (James Bond/Marvel), or have the type of music that teenagers and young people in their 20’s enjoy to be a hit movie. Or be Don’t Look Up and get everybody buzzing about it. I think West Side Story is in second place, not third, and that it will prevail in March. My reason is that there are real negatives about The Power of the Dog that will make it lose steam over the long haul. I will only think TPOTD is winning if it gets both PGA and DGA but if it loses one or the other I won’t predict it. I think many academy members are going to be wary of being told they must love this gay-themed (sort of) movie which is allegedly about “toxic masculinity” as their pick for the best of the year.

I actually think Belfast AND West Side Story are more likely to win despite the rabid fan base for TPOTD on here.

West Side Story is a great movie musical – I think it’s the best of its kind that has ever been made. I have seen it five times and it’s richer and better with each viewing. It’s sheer heaven.

I know the rabid Dog fans will be out in full force explaining why it is a lock to win (the critics, don’t you know, they chose this as BP – for snobby reasons in my opinion). Certainly TPOTD could get enough high rankings across the board to eke out a win but I guess I am hoping it won’t – Belfast and especially West Side Story are much better movies.

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